"On-grid price" determines the domestic photovoltaic growth in the "12th Five-Year Plan"

The market has great prospects for the long-term prospects for China's photovoltaic demand, but for the photovoltaic industry, which is still unable to achieve affordable access within three to five years, no matter what policies the current relevant departments issue, they cannot be introduced with the “on-grid price” policy for domestic photovoltaic installations. This is the key policy that determines the future of domestic PV growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

The current global PV market demand depends on the faces of Germany and Italy. In 2010, the world's installed capacity of 17GW accounted for 70% of the market demand. With the slight changes in the subsidy policy for the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year, this has caused the “ups and downs” of global PV product prices. Directly caused the global PV market demand to shrink in the second quarter, the photovoltaic industry chain full range of products dropped sharply, year-to-date, polysilicon fell more than 20%, silicon fell more than 30%, battery prices fell about 30%, until the formal formulation of the two countries in June after the policy The market began to stabilize.

At present, China's PV industry has always presented a “two ends out” situation. Chinese PV companies account for more than 50% of the world's supply, but the demand only accounts for less than 5% of the world's total. The total installed PV capacity of China in 2010 was only about 500MW. .

The market has always been expecting relevant government departments to introduce policies to promote the application of China's photovoltaic market. From March 2009, the central government decided to invest about 10 billion yuan each year from the finance to provide subsidies for the construction of solar roofs and photovoltaic buildings in China and promote the formation of the domestic photovoltaic market. However, the implementation of the "Golden Sun" project in these two years was not very effective. The construction of the first phase of the “Golden Sun” project in 2010 was less than half of the total planning scale, leading to a significant reduction in the scale of the second-phase project identified by the country as compared with the first phase.

In the domestic PV market, “thunder and rain is small”, but in the final analysis, it is still low-cost vicious competition and insufficient subsidies, resulting in insufficient investment income and the lack of enthusiasm of investment entities.

The market always remembers the Dunhuang 10MW project that was tendered in 2009. At that time, the market reported a low price of RMB 0.69, but the final effective price was RMB 1.09. Nevertheless, the investment income of this price is still not attractive to the company. The companies participating in bidding are also mostly companies with the background of the national character.

According to the current total investment cost of 15-18 yuan/watt after the price drop of photovoltaic products, the domestic policy subsidy is basically 7-8 yuan/watt, and the domestic capital cost of photovoltaic projects is about 10-15 years. . According to the ratio of input to output, investment has a certain degree of economy, but in the short term, it is difficult for the Chinese market to have extraordinary development.

According to the 12th Five-Year Development Plan for New Energy currently being formulated by the National Energy Administration, the 12th Five-Year Plan PV installation target may be increased to 10GW, and by 2020 the PV installation target may be significantly increased to 50GW. The average annual installed capacity is 2GW, but according to this year's policy support and tendering expectations, 600-1000MW is likely to be the upper limit.

In fact, for a photovoltaic company that is the mainstream of private enterprises, it is more important than the installed capacity of photovoltaics that, when the installed capacity increases, the company is profitable, not just the increase in the total number.

In June 2010, a heavyweight expert from the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission told this reporter that the photovoltaic industry is also considering a policy of on-grid power tariffs like wind power. However, due to insufficient experience in the development of large-scale photovoltaics in China, it is still necessary A few years passed the tender price test. However, he also stated that during the "12th Five-Year Plan Period," photovoltaic power benchmarking prices with resource differences will be issued.

With regard to the current global market, the profit model of the photovoltaic industry is still mainly based on the government's formulating on-grid tariff subsidies. In the long run, “flat-rate Internet access” must be a promising future. However, for the moment, the probability of achieving parity Internet access at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is very small, and during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China There is still a need for financial subsidies for the PV industry, and the “benchmark price” is actually a phased and relatively reasonable move. This can follow the German and Italian approach. As the cost declines, the subsidy will be reduced until usher in the “flat-rate Internet access”. The era of the ".